- Numerous species are expanding their ranges towards the North Pole, a pattern that is usually explained with climate change. However, few studies have actually tested the potential role of climate in such range expansions. Here, we studied the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi, which has multiplied its range in Central and Northern Europe during the 20th century and is still spreading. Using current and historical climate data, we analysed whether this spread can be explained by climate warming, increasing cold tolerance or if it is unrelated to temperature. Spatial partial regression showed that the spread of A. bruennichi into formerly cooler areas is independent of spatial autocorrelation, indicating that it is driven by temperature. Some aspects of the spread, as e.g. the patchy distribution at the beginning of the century are likely to be relicts of climate fluctuations before our study period. From the middle of the 20th century until the 1980s, A. bruennichi was recorded from gradually cooler climates, while temperature was relatively constant. This indicates that A. bruennichi either increased its cold tolerance or that the spread continued with a time lag following an earlier warming event, due to dispersal limitation. In the last two decades, temperature rose sharply. The temperatures at which A. bruennichi was newly recorded increased as well, indicating that the spider is dispersal limited and that the spread will continue even in the absence of further climate warming.
